Monday, September 21, 2009
Math Hulk IX: Broodlord vs Librarian
This is the battle of the big boys. The broodlord packs a big close combat punch but the Librarian is unbeatable if he has enough psi points left. The quick result is that the librarian needs on average 3.58 psi points on the front to win with guard dropping it down to 2.87. On the flank the win costs 4.53 with guard 3.79 but remember that just gets the win in that combat which allows you to turn and face the broodlord. The guard cut offs to optimize psi point use was found to be reroll any die 3 or less for a tie or loss.
If you librarian gets caught in a room by the broodlord he can attack your side then if he has 2 action points(1 point move diagonally and turn and 1 point to attack) left attack on another side. If you have command points you can keep turning you facing which might enter an interesting game of Cat and Mouse as the broodlord tries to get around you and you keep you facing at him.
Averages do not really tell the whole store here since the number of points it might cost to beat the broodlord can vary from 0 to 12 so I have prepared a plot of the distribution. These distributions are pretty broad and flat with approximately the same chances of it costing between 0 and 5 to 7 points all near the same depending on the status of the librarian.
Now when the librarian is getting low on points he becomes much more vulnerable so I have prepared a chart showing the cummulative probabilities of the librarian getting a win based on how many points he has available. He is in pretty good shape at about 6 with 80% wins regardless of guard or flank but below that the broodlord can start to have a chance.