So I was looking at the Reaper Bones II Kickstarter progression. Specifically at rate of increases for the rewards and how the awards are being distributed in the categories. Currently the core $100 set is in the ~130 model range but there are many days left for more models to be added but after an incredible growth in the first 12 hours things have moved to a very healthy 125K a day or so. This is about the space between rewards right now but each reward is spaced farther and farther apart at an increase rate of about 12%. So to get to 200+ models again if they kept their about 6 models per reward all going into the core set they need to get up to 4.4M using the trends currently seen.
It is worth noting that they have a good amount of optional rewards and introduced the expansion set which is numbered 1 so I think they have more planned in the kickstarter. These appear to start pretty pricey but also grows with rewards. If you split the reward even between Core, Option, Expansions then you need about 30 more rewards to get to 200 models in the Core. This corresponds to about 37M using their current growth rates. While I could see that kickstarter getting to the 4-5M range with just projection of the current rate, 37M seems pretty unreasonable. It will be interesting to see if they cut the reward growth rate to correspond to the slower current rate to keep rewards appear regularly.
Personally I am would have been ok with fewer minis last time if all of them were good. For the kickstarter to be a good deal given you have to wait a year you have to ask whether you would by like 40 of the minis on their own. If so then it is clearly a good buy, if not then let it pass.