+-Wing: X-Wing vs Tie Fighter Range Breakdown

So here we have a very basic result from my +-Wing (Plus Wing) probability calculator for the X-Wing miniature game.  I compared the average number of hits plus criticals generated by an X-Wing shooting at a Tie Fighter Ranges 3-1 to that of a Tie Fighter Shooting at an X-wing at the same range band.


First thing to notice is that the X-Wing doubles its damage output going from long to short range but the Tie fighter actually almosts triples its damage output.  This makes qualitative sense as adding an extra die to either defense or attack is going to be a bigger increase percentage wise when you only have 2 to start than when you have 3.   So adding 1 defense die to the X-wing at Range 3 improves its defense more and adding one attack die at Range 1 to the Tie Fighter improves its shooting more.  The gap actually remains relatively constant that the X-wing will generate about .15 more hit+crits on average than the Tie fighter as they fire at each other.

 

Here is the breakdown of the average hits vs average criticals for the X-wing shooting at the Tie fighter at all three ranges.  I am plotting this as opposed to the reverse since the shields of the X-wing negates the affects of the criticals for many of the Tie shots until the X-wing is about to go down.  The average number of criticals is about half the average number of normal hits.  Given that the die has 3 hits and 1 critical this would seem to indicate that the ratio should be 3 to 1 but you have to remember that the defense dice cancel the hits first then the criticals.  This makes it a good example for the idea that really simple calculations are not going to give you all the details correctly.  Something else interesting I noticed in these calculations is that the chances of 1 shoting a Tie fighter with an X-wing triples from Range 2 to Range 1 up to about 10 percent. 

Next up I will try to run all the combinations from Attack 5 to Attack 2 vs Agility 5 to Agility 0 to look for trends of general remember facts.  You can look at my first set of calculations where I compare Attack 3 and Defense 3 and the affect of the basic actions on the averages.